Roger Federer's Realistic Chances Of Winning The 18th Grand Slam Title At The Australian Open 2017.
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In this post we will take a deep look at Roger Federer's realistic chances of winning his 18th grand slam title at the Oz(Australian Open 2017). So lets get started.Note: I will refer to Australian open as Oz open.
The things which we will take a look in this post are:
1) In depth look at 1000 Master Performances of his entire career VS post 2012 ( which was the year in which he won his last grand slam at Wimbledon ).
2) Decline in performance after 2012 and also a look at key opponents.
3) Different court surfaces affecting Rogers game.
4) Past performances at the Australian open.
5) Predictions and Conclusions.
1) 1000 Master Performances of his entire career VS post 2012:
But looking at the stats of his entire career will not give a correct picture of his chances at the 2017 Oz open because he has not won a grand slam since WIMBLEDON 2012 !
Take a look below :
Age at next slam: At Oz open 2017 his age will be 35 years 5 months.
Time since last grand slam : 4 years 7 months ; or 17 Slams ! Yes guys 17 slams have passed by since he won his 17th slam.
Lets not deviate to slams, lets first analyse the 1000 masters !
After Wimbledon 2012,
Roger has played 10 finals and has won 4 titles and 6 runner ups. So that's a win % of just 40%! Pathetic ! Lets keep our focus on hard courts. Out of the 10 finals played , 7 are hard court finals and 3 are clay court finals; Out of 7 hard court finals he has won 4 titles and 3 runner ups. So a win % of 57.14% .
2) Decline in performance after 2012 and also a look at key opponents:
Take a look at the 1000 masters comparison after 2012 below:
3 Runner Up Finishes
2 against Djokovic ( both Indian Wells)
1 against Tsonga ( just 2 1000 titles)
4 Titles Won
2 against Djokovic ( both Cincinnati)
1 against David Ferrer
1 against Gilles Simons
So we can clearly see from the above comparison that Novak Djokovic is his greatest threat to grand slam glory. But we can observe one more interesting thing the he has lost both the times at the Indian wells itself and won both his matches against Novak at the Cincinnati masters ! Why is that so. We will have to look into the surfaces to get an answer to this question.
Andy Murray might not be a great threat to Roger but considering his success in 2nd half of 2016 and his rise to no 1 in the world by dethroning the reining champion of the No.1 crown might be an indication that indeed Andy might be ready for the challenge.
3) Different court surfaces affecting Rogers game:
The hard courts are basically made of a concrete or asphalt base and there is a synthetic or a acrylic layer over it and the colour of courts may vary. As per ATP, there is a rating given to any particular tournament and the Indian wells falls under the 1st category indicating that the court is slow in nature. Indicating more bounce which favours Novak and works against Roger as per me.
Coming to the Cincinnati Masters, the tournament is rated under the 4th category indicating that the court is medium fast which obviously favours Roger. The material of the court is ProDeco Turf II.
Roger has won 3 titles at Oz before 2008 (last won at 2007 when he was just 25 years and 5 months) and just 1 after that at 2010 ( 28 years and 5 months). The surface was changed from ReboundAce to Plexicusion in 2008. Rebound Ace is most similar to Pro DecoTurf ( the surface of Cincinnati ! ) that is a fast surface.
After the court was changed to Plexicusion the court became much slower like in Indian wells and you can see how Novak has dominated it. In 2008 Roger was in his absolute prime and novak was just new to tennis world and you know who won the title. Since then Novak has won 5 more titles ! Defeating Andy 4 times !!4) Past performances at the Australian open.
Note: Only Wawrinka has shown the potential to show Novak the door at Oz.
Lets analyse Roger's record at Oz open after the surface was changed in 2008.
2008-lost to Novak in semis.
2009-lost to Rafael in finals.
2010- won against Andy in finals
2011-lost to Novak in semis.
2012-lost to Rafael in semis.
2013-lost to Andy in semis.
2014-lost to Rafael in semis.
2015-lost to Seppi in semis.
2016-lost to Novak in semis.
If we ignore the 2010 title and his 3rd round defeat to Seppi in 2015, then we can find a very visible pattern.
1) He has lost all his matches to the BIG FOUR !
Novak -3 times
Rafael - 3 times
Andy -1 times.( lost in 2013 which was RF's worst year apart from 2016)
2) He has faced the big four alternatively! Since 2008 we have in order,
Novak(2008) Rafael (2009) Andy (2010)
Novak(2011) Rafael (2012) Andy (2013)
Rafael (2014) Novak (2016) ? (2017)
3) Out of the 7 tries ( ignoring 2010 victory and 2015 3rd round loss) , 6 times he's lost in semis ! and 1 time in finals.
5) Predictions and Conclusions:
So from the above analysis we can draw a large number of conclusions.
1) The speed of court at Oz open favours Novak Djokovic.
2) Wawrinka is a threat to Novak at Oz.
3) Roger has lost most of the times at the semis since the courts change after 2007.
4) Roger might probably face Andy this time around.
5) Novak remains the biggest threat to Roger over the last few years.
6) Each time he goes till the very deep ( semis; indicating that he doesn't have any problem with the early rounds!), only to lose later to any one of the big four.
We'll analyse some more aspects here without which the analysis is incomplete.
Since Roger has not played after Wimbledon 2016 semis loss to Milos Raonic, he has had a lot of rest and is bound to be fresh for the Oz open. Here definitely the vote goes to Roger ( he has never had such a long break in his entire career ! ) so he will be ultra fresh even though he is 35, at least for the Oz open.
Lets consider the motivation.Roger knows that his time is limited and 2017 might be well his last season, so he will give his 200% for sure. So no lack of motivation, whereas for Novak Djokovic motivation is an issue after he won the GRAND SLAM. We all know how much he has achieved over the last few years and also particularly and the Oz open and and we know Y! Coming to 2nd half of 2016, he has lost motivation and Andy is on the rise.
Since Roger has only lost to the big four, we might well expect the trend to continue but Roger has dropped to 16th in world rankings ( Probably out of top 20 by the end of this year). So he might face the big four as early as 4th round which will be a night mare for him? Not really, because he is so fresh coming into the Oz 2017 that if he faces Novak, Roger might well get past the finish line because Novak has changed. He is not the same force anymore, therefore you might expect a tightly fought battle and not like this years Oz where Novak just humiliated Roger. Next possibility is if he faces Rafa then also there is not much of a problem because its a hard court event after all and Rafa is also going through one of the worst phases of his career. Next if he faces Andy at the 4th round, this might be the toughest thing for Roger because considering the kind of form Andy is in and his results in the 2nd half of 2016 speak for itself.
Two more players we might like to see are Stan Wawrinka and Del Potro, both might be a threat to Roger so it would be better if he avoids them, if he wants to win his much awaited 18th GS at the Australian Open.
PREDICTIONS:
1st round - 100% ( if not del potro )
2nd round - 100%
3rd round - 100%
4th round - 50% (big four)
QF - 100%
SF - 100%
F - 80%
Let me know your views in the comments below and who do you think will the the Australian Open 2017.
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